Turkey’s Elections Too Close to Call
Public support for the two leading candidates is nearly evenly divided, making it extremely difficult to identify a clear frontrunner
Public support for the two leading candidates is nearly evenly divided, making it extremely difficult to identify a clear frontrunner
Turkey’s opposition parties have taken important steps to present a united front against Erdogan in next year’s presidential elections. Still, in and of themselves, these measures won’t be enough to secure them an electoral victory in 2023 if they fail to wisely select their presidential candidate.
Meral Aksener’s Good (IYI) Party is the AKP’s greatest competition for the heart of the Turkish right. The Good Party’s recent activism has drawn the ire of both friend and foe.
Amid deepening economic crisis, domestic and foreign policy disarray, and the decline of public support for Turkey’s strongman president, discussions on what a Turkey without Erdogan could/should look like are becoming more prevalent. Still, many experts agree that the end of Erdogan’s rule in and of itself wouldn’t usher in an era of democracy, especially without the opposition’s adoption of a pluralist approach.
The identity of the Turkish state has been transformed under the rule of Islamist President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the central role that religion has come to play in its foreign policy is best exemplified in its relations with the Balkans.
President Erdogan, in coordination with his MHP coalition partner, has declared his intent to open the floor to debate on a new constitution. Nonetheless, interpretations of the vague and limited declaration vary.
The MHP is not necessarily pulling the AKP towards any particular policy position. The AKP would have taken all these steps in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean even if the MHP weren’t in the picture.
Declaring early elections would be the AKP’s last choice, because there is absolutely no need for them to have early elections
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