After Kazakhstan’s most serious unrest since it gained independence, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is positioned to chart a new course that separates him from Nursultan Nazarbayev’s legacy. However, lingering questions about causes of the violence and the possibility of intra-elite conflict remain unanswered.

A Russian invasion of Ukraine would pose significant risks to Turkey. Moscow’s potential exertion of economic, military, and political pressure on Ankara may also weaken a NATO response to the crisis, especially from the Black Sea.